Former UCLA stars ready to shine

Basketball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Labor Day has passed, the kids are back in school and the leaves will soon begin to fall here in the northeast.

That means the calendar has flipped to September and most of America is gearing up for football and postseason baseball.

Here on the basketball beat, we are still seven weeks away from the NBA season and still firmly focused on the FIBA World Championships in Turkey. Personnel moves have slowed to a trickle and while there are a few key contributors left on the open market, most of the NBA's general managers have built the foundation for their respective teams and mapped out a strategy for the 2010-11 season.

Typically, contenders try to tweak a few things here and there, while the pretenders cry "salary cap constraints," and make plans to take a few steps backwards in hopes of landing the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft, a prize that figures to be either North Carolina's Harrison Smith or Baylor's Perry Jones next summer.

This year, however, things have been a bit different. With their eyes on the prize and the NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers, Pat Riley and the Miami Heat completely revamped their club, pulling off one of the biggest coup's in NBA history by luring LeBron James and Chris Bosh to South Beach to play alongside Dwayne Wade.

Meanwhile, the two-time defending champs went the more traditional route, convincing Phil Jackson to stay on as head coach and tweaking a veteran-laden roster by adding defensive-minded role players like Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff.

Players like James, Bosh, Wade and Kobe Bryant are constants, however. You know they are going to be good -- real good. By and large, you even know what veteran complementary pieces like Barnes and Ratliff are going to offer.

The fun stuff starts with young players poised for vast improvement. In fact, every year a group of players really elevates their games. Some are surprises and some are expected to reach that next level.

Here's one man's view of the five players that are ready to take the next step in 2010-11:

1. - Kevin Love - power forward - Minnesota Timberwolves - I've always "Love'd" Kevin's game dating back to his days at UCLA. With Al Jefferson being shipped out to Salt Lake City, Love will get every opportunity to be the focal point of Kurt Rambis' interior group. Love hasn't garnered a ton of minutes for Team USA over in Istanbul but he makes the most out of every single second Mike Krzyzewski gives him and has outplayed the team's other big men -- Lamar Odom and Tyson Chandler. Love has a top-tier basketball IQ, is a plus rebounder and plays defense with the kind of effort coaches crave. Offensively, he's deadly with the medium-range stuff and can stretch out to 20-feet or so. Health is the only concern when talking about Love. He missed the first 18 games last season with a broken hand.

2. - Jrue Holiday - point guard - Philadelphia 76ers - The book on Holiday before the 2009 draft was the cliched "raw with the huge upside." Normally, I shrug off talk like that since it's become commonplace among NBA personnel people. But one longtime scout who I respect assured me Holiday would be the best point guard from that '09 draft in five years, a bold statement considering Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson and Darren Collison also went in Holiday's class. When the Sixers turned the keys over to Holiday last season, you could see exactly what all the fuss was about. A true quarterback that thinks pass first, Holiday is already one of the top 10 defensive point guards in the league. Experience should turn the former UCLA guard into an All-NBA defender and a more consistent jumper could turn him into an All-Star.

3. - Blake Griffin - power forward - Los Angeles Clippers - Griffin, of course, missed his entire rookie season after suffering a stress fracture in his left knee. You always have to be concerned with leg injuries when you are talking about bigs and the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Griffin plays with the sort of recklessness that will put enormous stress on his body. That said, a stress fracture isn't going to affect Griffin's rare work ethic and outstanding athleticism. He lacks polish on the low post and isn't the can't-miss franchise guy like a James or Dwight Howard, but Griffin should team with Chris Kaman and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu to give new Clips coach Vinny Del Negro an imposing frontcourt.

4. - Rodrigue Beaubois - swing guard - Dallas Mavericks - The Mavs need to get younger and Beaubois flashed some serious athletic skills during limited playing time in his rookie season. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry aren't exactly ready to step aside but Beaubois offers a change of pace that could be a shock to the system of the opposition if he plays with consistent effort.

5. - Darren Collison - point guard - Indiana Pacers - Collison, another former UCLA star, was really good while filling in for the injured Chris Paul during his rookie year in the Big Easy. However, with Paul entrenched for now in New Orleans, the Hornets dealt Collison to Indiana where the second-year player now has an opportunity to grow with one of the game's best young scorers, Danny Granger. Collison probably doesn't have the size or strength to hold-up on the defensive end on a consistent basis but he's already proven he has the ability to run a team and get his own shot.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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