Gaming: Back the Overs in Big 12 play

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big 12 conference favored lower scoring games and plenty of unders in 2009. In fact, 58 of the 98 conference games went under the posted total. Moreover, 30 of the 46 non-conference tilts were unders as well for a final record of 88-56, a 61% winning percentage. The previous year was almost the complete opposite as the overs blew away the unders by a 64-34 margin in league play.

What will be in store for 2010? Let's take a quick look at some statistics. In '08, 62% of the offensive starters returned as opposed to 58% for the defense. However, the main reason for the high scoring totals was the high quality of the skill position players. Ten starting quarterbacks returned along with three stud wide receivers (Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin and Dez Bryant) that combined for 286 receptions and 51 touchdowns.

Last season, only 59% of the offensive starters returned while 58% came back from the defensive side. Eight starting quarterbacks returned, but two (Sam Bradford and Robert Griffin), missed most of the season. In a related note, the top seven tackles-per-game leaders and 10 of the top 12 pass defenders came back to their respective schools.

This season, 64% of the conference's offensive starters return, compared to only 55% on defense. In addition, just one of the top 10 tackles-per-game leaders is back and only three of the top nine pass defenders will return.

The results of all those numbers should be a major bump in scoring, which in turn, should boost the totals over the number on a weekly basis in a large percentage of in-conference games.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

NORTH

6) KANSAS - The Jayhawks were 3-8 ATS last year, 1-8 in their last nine games. They are 9-2 ATS in non-conference play over the last three years.

Offense - This season will be a rebuilding one for the offense as the club's top three players have all departed. Look for the Jayhawks to average one fewer touchdown per game from last year's 29.4 point per game average.

Defense - Since its 12-1 season in '07, the defense has allowed an average of 36 ppg in league play. Part of that has to do with having to play Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech the last two years, but the "D" did give up 31 points or more in seven of the other 10 conference games.

Prediction - One might assume the Jayhawks record will improve without the Big 12 South powers on the schedule. However, that will not be the case as they are extremely weak at almost every position. (4-8, 1-7)

5) IOWA STATE - The Cyclones went 8-4 ATS in '09. They are 1-4 as home underdogs over the last two years.

Offense - With all the talent assembled on this side of the ball, it was a shock to see the point production fizzle from 25.3 ppg down to 20.5. Seven starters return so the offense should produce at a higher rate. Nevertheless, the schedule might not allow it since it's filled with such solid defensive teams as Nebraska, Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma, and even Northern Illinois.

Defense - Last year, five of the top seven tacklers returned and the defense cut its points per game average down from 36 to 22. Unfortunately, only two of last year's seven leading tacklers come back in 2010.

Prediction - Iowa State could be overvalued this season based on its '09 bowl campaign so don't expect another 8-4 ATS campaign. (2-10, 1-7)

4) KANSAS STATE - The Wildcats went 6-4 ATS last year, finishing 5-1 in their last six games. They are 11-4 as home favorites over the last five years.

Offense - The loss of quarterback Josh Freeman severely hampered the offense last season as the scoring average dropped from 35 ppg down to 23. Nevertheless, look for a slight rise this season as the offense should be much improved in the second season in Bill Snyder's return back to coaching.

Defense - The ability to stop the run was the key ingredient for a defense that chopped off almost two touchdowns from the year before. There is enough returning talent to keep the Wildcats from giving most of those points back.

Prediction - Kansas State will once again finish with an above .500 ATS record. (6-6, 3-5)

3) COLORADO - The Buffaloes went 7-5 ATS last season. They are 5-2 ATS as home underdogs over the last two years.

Offense - Colorado ranked last in the league in total offense for the second straight season. However, if this unit can ever put it together, 2010 seems to be the year to do so. Ten starters return and the depth of quality talent at the receiver position is the best it has been in the Dan Hawkins era.

Defense - The Buffaloes came into last season with only four returning starters. Still, the team allowed 19 fewer yards per game than in 08. This year, seven starters return to a unit that should drastically improve its run defense.

Prediction - Colorado will be much more competitive this season so look for a stellar ATS record. (5-7, 3-5)

2) NEBRASKA - The Cornhuskers were 9-5 ATS last year but just 4-5 in their final nine games. They are 8-2 ATS in non-conference play over the last two seasons.

Offense - The offense must improve on its last place conference finish in total offense (282 ypg) and 11th-place tally in scoring (18.8 ppg) for the Cornhuskers to have any chance at a national title. With a much more dominant offensive line, and the return of almost all of its skill position players, Nebraska should bump up its Big 12 scoring average by a full touchdown.

Defense - This is still one of the top defenses in the country but the opposition's numbers will increase in all of the major categories. The loss of its top three tacklers, including Ndamukong Suh, will allow opposing teams to average more than 15 ppg.

Prediction -Nebraska's ATS record will take a sharp dive from last season's 9-5 mark. (10-2, 6-2)

1) MISSOURI - The Tigers finished 4-8 ATS in '09. They are 8-1 ATS as road favorites over the last three years.

Offense - Quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who played most of the season with an injured ankle, will shine in his junior campaign even with the loss of receiver Danario Alexander. In addition, the line returns four starters, which should help Derrick Washington top the 1,000-yard rushing mark.

Defense - Nine of last year's top 11 tacklers come back to a team that ranked second in league play against the run. And that was with only four returning starters. The Tigers were torched through the air but that won't happen this season with the return of the entire starting secondary, except for Jarrell Harrison, who is dealing with a torn meniscus.

Prediction - After going 9-16 ATS the last two years, look for a major turnaround in 2010. (10-2, 6-2)

SOUTH

6) OKLAHOMA STATE - The Cowboys went 6-6 ATS last season. They are 12-4 ATS as road favorites over the last nine years.

Offense - Head Coach Mike Gundy brought in former Houston and Texas Tech offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen to spice up an offense that moves forward without four offensive line starters and Zac Robinson, the school's all-time leading passer.

Defense - Oklahoma State finished 11th nationally against the run last season allowing just 96 ypg. However, it will be tough to repeat those numbers with only two starters back from the front seven.

Prediction - This will be the Cowboys first losing ATS season since '05. (5-7, 2-6)

5) TEXAS TECH - The Red Raiders finished 7-5 ATS last year. They are 4-0 ATS as home underdogs since '06.

Offense - Texas Tech will stay with its pass-happy offense even with Tommy Tuberville taking over as head coach. Nevertheless, don't expect the team to average 37 ppg once again as the offensive line is extremely young, with three sophomore starters.

Defense - This unit needs to replace six of last year's top 12 tacklers, along with its top four sack artists. New talent must be found quickly or the defense will be in trouble from the start.

Prediction - Both quarterbacks (Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield) are coming off injuries so there's a good chance the Red Raiders will begin the season with a poor ATS record. (6-6, 3-5)

4) BAYLOR - The Bears ended last year at 5-6 ATS. They are 4-13 ATS as home underdogs over the last five years.

Offense - Baylor earned a league low 13 ppg in conference play last season primarily due to the loss of quarterback Robert Griffin in the third game of the season. With the sophomore back in the fold, look for the Bears to possibly double their output in 2010.

Defense - Baylor's defense failed to live up to expectations last season giving up more yards per game than the season before. Look for a reversal of form this year as the infusion of younger talent from the last two freshmen classes will spark a revival in Waco.

Prediction - All signs point to a solid ATS season if Griffin can regain the form he showed in '08. (7-5, 4-4)

3) TEXAS A&M - The Aggies finished 6-7 ATS last year. They are 4-9 ATS outside the Big 12 over the last three years.

Offense - Not many teams around the country can boast the type of playmakers that Texas A&M has in its arsenal. The offensive line is less experienced than last year but that should not stop Jerrod Johnson and company from racking up the points in 2010.

Defense - Only two teams that finished in the bottom 20 nationally in scoring defense went bowling last season: Idaho and Texas A&M. This year's unit should move up the ladder with the return of eight of its top nine tacklers.

Prediction - Since the Aggies have received a ton of press this offseason, it is doubtful the value will be there so don't expect a powerful ATS record. (8-4, 5-3)

2) TEXAS - The Longhorns were 5-8-1 ATS last season, 0-3 to end the year. They are 6-3 ATS as road favorites over the last two years.

Offense - A lot will be riding on Garrett Gilbert after his impressive second half against Alabama in the National Championship game. However, lost in his eye-catching 30 minutes of action was his 33% completion percentage in Big 12 play. The sophomore must also move forward without Jordon Shipley, as well as three longtime offensive line starters.

Defense - Last year's secondary, despite its glorified reputation, allowed opposing Big 12 quarterbacks to nail 62% of their passes. This season the unit will be without its top player in safety Earl Thomas. In addition, the Longhorns lose three of their top four tackles for loss leaders. New stars always emerge in Austin, but the 2010 defense will not be as productive as last season's outstanding group, especially versus the run.

Prediction - Texas will finish below .500 ATS for a second straight season. (10-2, 6-2)

1) OKLAHOMA - The Sooners went 4-7-1 ATS last year. They are 17-6 ATS as home favorites since '06.

Offense - Unlike Garrett Gilbert, Landry Jones has almost a full season under his belt, becoming very familiar with his favorite target Ryan Broyles, who remains at Oklahoma. More importantly, the offensive line is in much better shape than a year ago. Perhaps the most amazing statistic from last season was the Sooners third-place finish in total offense in league play without Sam Bradford (for most of it), Jermaine Gresham and six other starters from '08. Look for them to finish first this season.

Defense - Despite losing six starters, there is still plenty of talent on hand, including three of their top five tacklers. However, the defensive scoring numbers will rise slightly over the 20 ppg making Oklahoma a prime "over" candidate on a weekly basis.

Prediction - The Sooners will improve their ATS record by at least four games from last year's 4-7-1 mark. (12-0, 8-0)