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08/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The expression "lightning never strikes twice" is often used to describe a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Of course, science tells us that lightning strikes occur frequently in specific areas and, although rare, repeat strikes occur.
The Philadelphia 76ers are counting on that.
To be blunt, Ed Stefanski probably should have joined his hand-picked coach Eddie Jordan on the unemployment line after last year's disastrous Sixers season. But, the Comcast-Spectacor braintrust of Ed Snider and Peter Luukko, loathe to admit another in a long line of mistakes, gave the embattled Philadelphia basketball chief one more chance.
This time, with the leash pulled tight in the form of assistant general manager Tony DiLeo and consultant Gene Shue watching over his shoulder, Stefanski made a prudent decision and inked the highly regarded Doug Collins to be the team's mentor in 2010-11.
The hire happened a year after it should have and cost the Sixers dearly in the crowded, very competitive Philadelphia sports market, but Stefanski was finally moving the team in the right direction again. Dealing underachieving center Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni, and landing Evan Turner after lucking out a bit in the NBA Draft Lottery also were regarded as feathers in Stefanski's cap.
That said, you could still sense the Sixers' brass wasn't all that comfortable with Stefanski leading the organization.
That sentiment came into focus on Thursday when Snider and Luukko named Stefanski's old boss in New Jersey. Rod Thorn, as the team's new president.
"We felt with the direction we are now heading that it was important for us to have two very strong basketball minds leading the Philadelphia 76ers," Luukko said. "We are building a strong organization and we're off to a terrific start with the addition of coach Doug Collins, the best available coach, and Evan Turner, who we feel was the best available player in the draft. Now we have added another top-level executive to help lead us into the future."
Thorn, an NBA veteran of more than four decades, spent the past 10 seasons as president of the New Jersey Nets. He was the 2001-02 NBA Executive of the Year and guided the Nets to a pair of Eastern Conference crowns in 2002 and 2003 as well as four Atlantic Division titles before stepping down last month.
"Over my time with the Nets, most of it was great," Thorn said. "The last few years we dismantled the team, on purpose, because of a corporate decision and that wasn't much fun. My feeling is, that time had run its course there."
Stefanski worked under Thorn in New Jersey for nine seasons, moving up from director of scouting to general manager, and was instrumental in the 2004 blockbuster transaction that brought All-Star Vince Carter to the Nets in exchange for a banged-up Alonzo Mourning and assorted flotsam.
Thorn himself engineered two major deals in June of 2001 that set the Nets up for success, trading the team's first pick in the 2001 NBA Draft (Eddie Griffin) to the Houston Rockets for their three first-round picks, one of which turned out to be Richard Jefferson. A day later, he negotiated a major six-player blockbuster trade with the Phoenix Suns that landed New Jersey Jason Kidd in exchange for Stephon Marbury.
"Rod is one of the most respected basketball minds in the game today," Snider said. "When we learned that he would not be re-signing with the Nets, we realized that this would be a terrific opportunity to bring one of the top executives in the NBA to the Sixers to work closely with Ed Stefanski. I'm really pleased to be adding him to our organization. I'm confident that Rod will be a tremendous asset for our team."
It's clear Stefanski excelled under Thorn's auspices before, but the situation is a bit different this time. No matter how you spin it Stefanski, who had served as the Sixers' president and general manager since December of 2007, was demoted on Thursday and called the decision surprising at first.
"My pity party lasted for about a half hour, then I was fine after that," Stefanski said.
Thorn, who made his NBA bones as the general manager in Chicago from 1978-1985 when he selected Michael Jordan third overall in the '84 draft, was quick to temper any possible dissension.
"Some say that when Ed left, the Nets weren't as good after that," Thorn said. "I have a lot of respect for Ed, both on a professional and personal level. And I look forward to working very closely with him as we go forward. He understands me, and I think I understand him. We make a good team, and hopefully that will take effect and be something we can all be proud of here."
Whether a Thorn-Stefanski sequel ends up doing similar business 90 miles down the Jersey Turnpike will likely depend on Stefanski's ability to swallow his pride and handle a rather significant blow to his ego.
"Rod is my mentor in the NBA," Stefanski said. "He taught me a lot of things about the NBA and we are close friends. I know Rod, he knows me. We work extremely well together. I think we were a hell of a team in New Jersey and I think the results showed that. There is no reason to say that we are not going to do the same thing here."
<< Angels ready for key series with visiting Blue Jays
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After getting swept by the dreadful Baltimore Orioles early
last week, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have responded in a positive way.
Still a long way off from a playoff berth, the Angels look to keep the drive
going
<< Surging Twins return home to take on A's
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It must feel good for the Minnesota Twins to head back to
the Twin Cities with the American League Central Division lead. They'll try to
stay atop the standings when they open a three-game series versus the Oakland
Athletics
<< U.S. women learn World Cup qualifying opponents
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States women's national team will
play Costa Rica, Haiti and Guatemala in Group B of CONCACAF Women's World Cup
qualifying, it was announced Thursday night.
Group A features host Mexico, Canada,
<< White Sox, Tigers to clash in AL Central showdown
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers are fading fast from the postseason
picture, but can throw a wrench in the Chicago White Sox' playoff aspirations
when the two AL Central rivals begin a three-game series tonight from U.S.
Cellular Field.
PGA Championship back after another fog delay >>
Kohler, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first round of the PGA Championship resumed
Friday morning following another fog delay and Matt Kuchar seized a one-shot
lead.
Kuchar birdied No. 6 at Whistling Straits -- his 15th hole -- after pla
Kansas City signs Mexican striker Bravo as DP >>
Kansas City, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Wizards signed Mexico
international striker Omar Bravo as a designated player, the Major League
Soccer club announced on Friday.
Bravo will join the Wizards prior to the 2011 sea
Washington Redskins 2010 Season Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's two things that can be counted on what it comes to
the Washington Redskins. Change is an endless constant, and controversy seems
to never go away.
The Redskins had plenty of both following a dreadful 4-12 season th
Report: Bush apologizes to Haden >>
McLean, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Southern California star running back
Reggie Bush has reportedly apologized to new school athletic director Pat
Haden for his role in the NCAA violations that landed the Trojan football
program
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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